I am interested in answering the following questions:
1. How will digital content be consumed and experienced by enterprise users by 2020? By "consumed," I mean used, shared, and repurposed -- not just read. By "experienced" I mean delivery mechanisms and multimedia properties.
2. Will enterprise users access most of the content they need directly from the respective owners/publishers, or through aggregators and resellers?
3. What percentage of the content that enterprise users consume will be produced by traditional publishers versus individuals and other enterprises?
4. Will there continue to be a distinction between first use rights and reuse rights, or will copyright be redefined (technically or legislatively) to encompass all "rights" for all "uses" (other than resale)?
5. How much of the content that enterprise users consume will be "endorsed," "recommended," or "referred," versus searched for or discovered independently by each user?
6. How much of the content that enterprise users consume will be a commodity, i.e., available through many sources (like news), or unique and proprietary, i.e., available through only one or two sources (like scientific studies)?
7. How much of the content that enterprise users consume will be free (advertising supported or other) versus paid?
I realize the term "enterprise user" is very broad. There are significant differences between content users in a Fortune 500 company and content users in a small company with 50 employees. I am more interested in exploring the commonalities that will exist between all people who need content to get their jobs done. For example, all enterprise users get content via the web and mobile devices today, regardless of what they do or who they work for. How might that change in the next 10 years?
Your thoughts are welcome and appreciated! I will share what I think are the best answers to these (and other questions) as the project develops.
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1 - Evermore integration into intelligent engines. A good example is Dow Jones Algorithmic ["Aldo"] product whereby content is fed into trading models. These things "learn" and improve the algorithms and get better and better over time at picking stocks. That concept will be replicated over many types of decision models. As Factiva likes to say - "Powering the Intelligent Enterprise."
ReplyDelete2 - There's just no doubt that access to content and distribution of content will follow segmentation strategies where highly commoditized content will be splattered with behavioral advertising from Google's replacement all the way through multiple segments ending with STM content free of advertising and with very limited distribution. The tools to govern distribution will improve greatly and markets will get used to a phone card approach for consuming content.
I see greater integration of video and social media and a continuance of instant gratification and viral distribution of information where no one has an early advantage over the receipt of information. Real advantages for the use of information will come from ever improving algorithms that turn data into decision making tools.
Lastly, what we define as content will change considerably. I also don't think we'll have flat panel screens - we will have holograms and [finally] paperless offices. Computation power will be incredible and all available via the cloud. And we'll work from anywhere - me from my sailboat!
Today's 10 year olds are already developing the skills required to be successful and we'll all be way off the mark crying for the days when no one could reach us for hours at a time.
Buckle up an get ready.
Many thanks for the insights, INDY. A few follow up questions:
ReplyDelete1. Do these intelligent engines work for news and information content, or are they limited to stock trades (data)? Are these engines proprietary to specific service providers for specific applications, or are they "open source" engines that can be customized for any number of applications? Can they operate on mobile devices?
2. When you say "phone card approach to consuming content," do you mean pay-per-use or all-you-can-use up to a predefined budget?
The hologram and paperless office vision is very exciting. The cloud is already here, but do you really think holographic computing is commercially viable on a mass scale within 10 years?
Will the cell phone become the primary device for obtaining and experiencing content, or continue to augment the laptop?
Enjoy the sailing!